The HPS Seminar Series

Agreeing to Disagree: Optimal model complexity in Sustainability Science

 

Alkistis Elliott-Graves (Bielefeld University)
 
The debate about the optimal level of model complexity is becoming increasingly important in many disciplines. In the first camp are those who argue that models should be simple so as to reduce the inherent complexity of systems, making them more tractable and generalizable. In the second camp are those who believe that models should incorporate complexity, so as to provide more accurate pictures of complex systems. Illustrating with examples from Sustainability Science (specifically from fisheries), I will show that scientists on both sides of the debate are frequently correct, in the sense that the cases they use to support their own position are valid and evidentially strong, as are the cases they use to point out weaknesses of the opposing position. Moreover, the scientists in each camp have a common goal, namely accurate predictions, hence this is an example of rational rational scientific disagreement, regarding how the goal of accurate prediction can best be achieved. Following Levins (1966) and Weisberg (2013) I will argue that accurate predictions cannot be achieved by either of the two types of models alone, but that a pluralistic approach with model ensembles is needed. This conclusion is relevant beyond the academic debate, as it has implications for policy-makers and other stakeholders.

The concept problem in the historiography of science 

​

John Wilkins (HPS, University of Melbourne)
 

In this talk I will discuss how we individuate concepts as terms in formal or informal languages, and how the imprecision of these terms both inhibits HPS and enables science. My own work on species concepts and definitions led me to reject the notion that such terms are theoretically determined all of the time, and that they are instead often worked out either in the absence of prior theory or as the theory. develops. I will present several cases in which this is to be found, based upon my recent paper "The Good Species" in Species Problems and Beyond (CRC Press 2022).

​

Confirmation seminar

​

Zoe Cosker (HPS, University of Melbourne)
 

.